Is it true Indian economy will be 6 trillions in next 10 years?
Prediction by Morgan Stanley head Ridham Desai:
According to global brokerage Morgan Stanley, India's digitization could increase a boost of 50-75 basis points to GDP growth in the coming decade and forecast that India will grow to USD 6 trillion economy and achieve upper-middle income status by by 2026-27. Their head Ridham Desai told reporters that they expect India's real and nominal GDP growth to compound annually by 7.1% and 11.2% respectively over the coming decade.
Major problem in front of it:
Citing the report 'India's digital leap - The multi-trillion dollar opportunity' released today, Desai said apart from some short term teething problems including implementation of GST, there is scope for visible shifts in economic activity starting in 2018 which would eventually lead India to be the top five equity markets in the world with a market capitalization of USD 6.1 trillion and the third-largest listed financial services sector around the globe with a market cap of USD 1.8 trillion by 2027.
Increasing consumer sectors of India:
India's consumer sectors is also likely to add about USD 1.5 trillion over the next ten years.
Important contribution by Indian stock markets:
Accordingly, he also pointing out that stock markets are likely to remain sturdy as a stronger economic growth should drive stronger corporate earnings growth.
Domestic participation in equities:
Desai also mentioned the country is also likely to witness strong domestic participation in equities.
Projecting equity saving for the next decade:
"We project equity saving of USD 420 billion USD 525 billion over the next ten years, versus the respective USD 60 billion and USD 120 billion that households and foreign portfolios invested over the previous ten years," he said.
Certain risks in front of it:
The right to privacy is a fundamental right, declared by the Supreme Court and private parties will likely continue to question whether Aadhaar violates privacy rights or not.
GST is expected to disrupt smaller businesses causing job losses and a general slowdown in economic growth.